摘要：面对近年来中国家庭杠杆率的不断攀升现象,本文关注和研究居民家庭杠杆率与家庭收入之间的关系。基于2014年、2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(China Family Panel Studies, CFPS) 数据,本文发现杠杆率与家庭收入之间存在显著的“倒U型”关系。居民杠杆率通过经营规划和金融投入两个途径影响家庭收入:一方面居民杠杆率通过提高家庭的经营规划进而促进家庭收入的提升;另一方面居民杠杆率的提高会增加家庭的金融投入,但是金融投入的增加会造成家庭收入的脆弱性与不确定性提高,进而导致家庭收入降低。异质性分析表明,高教育程度群体、东部地区及中高收入的家庭有更显著的“倒U型”关系。对居民杠杆率与收入风险之间关系的讨论发现,随着杠杆率的增加,家庭收入风险显著增加。本文的研究结论对居民合理控制杠杆率、提升财富水平提供了参考价值。

关键词：居民杠杆率;家庭收入;“倒U型”变化轨迹;经营规划;金融投入

Title：Mechanism Analysis of Household Leverage Ratio Affecting Residents’ Income and “Inverted U-Shaped” Change Trajectory

Abstract：In the face of the rising household leverage ratio in China in recent years, this paper focuses on the relationship between household leverage ratio and household income. Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in2014，2016 and 2018，this paper found a significant “inverted U shaped”relationship between leverage and household income. Household leverage ratio affects household income through business planning and financial input: On the one hand, household leverage ratio promotes the improvement of household income by improving household business planning; on the other hand, the increase of household leverage ratio will increase the financial input of households, but the increase of financial input will increase the vulnerability and uncertainty of household income, and then lead to the decrease of household income. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the higher education group, the eastern region and the middle and high income families have a more significant “inverted U shaped”relationship. A discussion of the relationship between leverage ratio and income risk shows that household income risk increases significantly with the increase of leverage ratio. The research conclusion of this paper provides reference value for residents to control leverage ratio reasonably and improve wealth level.

Key Words： Household Leverage Ratio Household Income “Inverted U shaped” Change Trajectory Business Planning Financial Input

摘要：本文利用中国家庭追踪调查(China Family Panel Studies, CFPS) 2018年微观调查数据库中的15 947户农户样本数据,系统探究了农地流转对农户消费结构优化的影响。研究结果表明:一是农地转出对非食品性消费的系数为0.105,大于对食品性消费的系数0.052,农地转出有利于推动农户的消费结构优化。二是农地转入对食品性消费的系数为0.034,且在5%水平上显著,但是对非食品性消费的系数为-0.015,没有通过显著性检验,农地转入不利于推动农户的消费结构优化。三是农地流转通过影响不同生计方式选择下的农户收入进而作用于其消费结构。四是东部省份地区农地转出户消费水平已经处在第Ⅱ阶段,中部与西部省份地区农地转出户消费水平刚迈入到第Ⅱ阶段,东部、中部与西部省份地区农地转入户消费水平均处在第Ⅰ阶段。五是粮食主产区农地转出户消费水平刚迈入到第Ⅱ阶段,非粮食主产区农地转出户消费水平已经处在第Ⅱ阶段,粮食主产区与非粮食主产区农地转入户消费水平均处在第Ⅰ阶段。因此,未来有必要针对不同类别的农地流转以及不同省份地区的农户采取适当的提高消费能力和消费水平的政策,不断优化农户的消费结构。

关键词： 农地转出;农地转入;消费结构优化;CFPS2018

Title：Has Farmland Transfer Promoted the Optimization of Rural Households’ Consumption Structure?-Empirical Evidence from CFPS2018

Abstract：Using the sample data of 15947 rural households in the micro survey database of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2018，this paper systematically explores the impact of farmland transfer on the optimization of rural households' consumption structure. The research results indicate that: Firstly, the coefficient of farmland transfer-out for non-food consumption is 0.105, which is greater than the coefficient of 0.052 for food consumption. Farmland transfer-out is conducive to promoting the optimization of rural households’consumption structure. The second is that the coefficient of farmland transfer-in on food consumption is 0.034， which is significant at the 5% level. However, the coefficient of nonfood consumption is-0.015, which does not pass the significance test. Therefore, farmland transfer-in is not conducive to promoting the optimization of rural households' consumption structure. Thirdly，farmland transfer affects the consumption structure by affecting the income of rural households with different livelihood options. Fourthly, the consumption level of farmland transfer-out households in the eastern provinces and regions is already in the second stage. The consumption level of farmland transfer-out households in the central and western provinces and regions has just entered the second stage，and the consumption level of farmland transfer-in households in the eastern， central， and western provinces and regions is all in the first stage. Fifthly, the consumption level of farmland transfer-out households in the main grain producing areas has just entered the second stage. The consumption level of farmland transfer-out households in non-grain producing areas is already in the second stage, and the consumption level of farmland transfer-in households in both grain producing and non-grain producing areas is in the first stage. Therefore, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies to improve consumption capacity and level for different types of farmland transfer and rural households in provinces and regions in the future, and continuously optimize the consumption structure of rural households.

Key Words：Farmland Transfer-out Farmland Transfer-in Consumption Structure Optimization CFPS2018

摘要：本文构建了一个包含预期住房价格的两期模型,利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据和中国宏观经济数据,考察不同类型家庭住房价格预期和储蓄的关系,发现异质性家庭储蓄与住房价格预期之间的影响因素并不相同。模型分析表明,住房价格和储蓄增长正负关系发生转变的关键是住房价格预期增长率的大小,与现有文献关于住房价格变化与储蓄关系的研究没有一致结论相符。在模型分析的基础上,通过数值模拟家庭消费决策,使储蓄率符合1990～2019年中国居民实际储蓄率,研究住房价格预期上升和下降情况下,不同类型住房价格预期家庭储蓄行为的变化。

关键词：住房价格预期;储蓄;两期模型;异质性家庭

Title：Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Housing Price Expectations on Residents’ Savings

Abstract：This study constructs a two-period model incorporating expected housing prices and examines the relationship between housing price expectations and savings across different household types utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) and China's macroeconomic indicators. It finds that the factors influencing the relationship between heterogeneous household savings and housing price expectations vary. Model analysis reveals that the pivotal factor for the shift between positive and negative correlations in housing price and savings growth is the magnitude of the expected housing price growth rate. This finding aligns with the inconsistency noted in the current literature regarding the relationship between housing price fluctuations and savings. Building on the model analysis，we simulate household consumption decisions numerically to align with the actual savings rates of Chinese residents between 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, we investigate how the savings behavior of households with varying housing price expectations changes in response to anticipated rises and falls in housing prices.

Key Words：Housing Price Expectations Savings Two Period Model Heterogeneous Households

摘要：社会资本作为传统资本的必要补充部分,理应在推动实现经济高质量发展的过程中发挥重要的作用。本文构建了一个社会资本内生化的经济增长模型,探究社会资本对经济增长的影响并揭示了社会资本促进经济增长的作用机制。研究发现:在不考虑技术内生且其增长率为零的条件下,长期经济增长速率主要由社会资本和实物资本两者的增长率所决定;市场交易成本与社会资本水平存在负向关系,社会资本水平越高,越能有效降低市场交易成本;经济体面临外部技术冲击时,均衡增长率和均衡交易成本的变化取决于社会资本水平且因社会资本水平的不同表现出较大差异;社会资本水平对交易成本的影响呈现“门槛效应”。本文创新性地构建了社会资本的动态演化方程,在技术内生化的基础上分析社会资本对经济增长的影响,揭示了社会资本与经济增长之间的关系,丰富并完善了社会资本与经济增长的理论研究。

关键词：社会资本;内生经济增长;交易成本

Title：Social Capital，Transaction Costs and Economic Growth

Abstract：Social capital, as an essential complement to traditional capital, should play a more significant role in promoting high-quality economic development. This paper constructs an endogenous economic growth model with social capital，explores the impact of social capital on economic growth, and reveals the mechanism through which social capital promotes economic growth. The research findings indicate that, under the assumption of no endogenous technological growth with a growth rate of zero, the long-term economic growth rate is mainly determined by the growth rates of both social capital and physical capital. Market transaction costs are negatively related to the level of social capital，with higher levels of social capital effectively reducing market transaction costs. When facing external technological shocks, the changes in equilibrium growth rate and equilibrium transaction costs depend on the level of social capital, showing significant differences due to varying levels of social capital. The impact of social capital on transaction costs exhibits a “threshold effect. " This paper innovatively constructs a dynamic evolution equation for social capital and analyzes the impact of social capital on economic growth based on endogenous technological growth, revealing the relationship between social capital and economic growth, and enriching and improving the theoretical research on social capital and economic growth.

Key Words：Social Capital Endogenous Economic Growth Transaction Costs

摘要：本文以2008年高院院长异地交流作为地区司法质量提升的准自然实验,运用双重差分法实证检验了地区司法质量提升对企业专业化分工的影响效果与作用机理。研究显示,提高地区的司法质量能显著地增强企业的专业化分工,这个结果在考虑内生性以及一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立。机制分析结果表明,地区司法质量的提升对企业专业化分工有着积极的推动作用,主要是因为它能有效降低企业所承受的外部交易成本。地区司法质量对企业专业化分工的提升效应在内部管控成本较低的小企业,行业竞争程度较高的制造业行业和政府干预程度较高的经济发达地区更为显著。进一步研究发现,地区司法质量提升还提高了企业全要素生产率和企业成长性。

关键词：地区司法质量;专业化分工;高院院长异地交流

Title：The Influence of Geographical Rotation of Judges in China on Regional Judicial Quality and Enterprise Labor Division: A Study Based on Empirical Evidence

Abstract：Utilizing the 2008 change in presidency of the High Court as a form of quasi-natural experiment, this research examines how enhancements in regional judicial quality can impact the professional division of labor in businesses. The differential method is utilized to empirically evaluate the influence and process of these improvements. The enhancement of regional judicial quality has been discovered to significantly elevate the level of enterprise specialization. This finding remains consistent even when taking into endogeneity consideration and a set of robustness assessments. Further analysis of the mechanism illustrates that reducing the external transaction expenses encountered by businesses is the primary means through which regional judicial quality promotes enterprise specialization. Improved regional judicial quality significantly affects smaller businesses specializing in areas with lower internal control costs, industry sectors with intense competition, and economically progressive regions with significant government intervention. Additional study shows that increasing regional judicial quality also promotes overall productivity and business growth.

Key Words：Regional Judicial Quality Specialized Division of Labor Geographical Rotation of Judges in China

摘要：在全面推进依法治企的背景下,合规监管政策体系的制度效应逐渐成为学术界关注的重点。本文以国务院国资委出台《中央企业合规管理指引(试行)》构建准自然实验,从制度溢出视角实证考察了合规监管对企业风险承担的影响及其作用机理。研究发现,合规监管具有降低企业风险承担水平的制度溢出效应。机制分析显示,合规监管主要通过提升企业内部控制水平抑制风险承担;内外部制度环境具有显著的调节作用。进一步研究表明,合规监管主要降低了企业异常风险承担水平。本文不仅揭示了合规监管政策传导致企业的机制路径,也为合规管理与内部控制、风险管理融合建设的政策效果提供了初步经验证据,结论对于完善合规监管政策体系和促进企业高质量发展具有重要启示。

关键词：合规监管;风险承担;制度溢出

Title：Institutional Spillover Effects of Compliance Regulation on Enterprise Risk Taking -Quasi Natural Experiment Based on Compliance Regulatory Policies of State-owned Assets

Abstract：Against the backdrop of comprehensively promoting legal governance of enterprises, the institutional effect of the compliance regulatory policy system has gradually become a focus of attention in the academic community. This article constructs a quasi-natural experiment based on the “Guidelines for Central Enterprise Compliance Management( Trial)”issued by the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council，and empirically examines the impact and mechanism of compliance supervision on enterprise risk taking from the perspective of institutional spillovers. Research has found that compliance regulation has an institutional spillover effect on reducing the level of enterprise risk taking. Mechanism analysis shows that compliance supervision mainly suppresses risk taking by improving the internal control level of enterprises; The internal and external institutional environment has a significant regulatory effect. Further research has shown that compliance regulation mainly reduces the level of abnormal risk taking by enterprises. This article not only reveals the mechanism path of the transmission of compliance regulatory policies to enterprises, but also provides preliminary empirical evidence for the policy effectiveness of the integration of compliance management， internal control，and risk management. The conclusion has important implications for improving the compliance regulatory policy system and promoting high quality development of enterprises.

Key Words： Compliance Regulation Risk Taking Institutional Spillover

摘要：通过对接国际高标准经贸规则,实现国为制度创新的制度型开放战略,不仅有利于推动中国与世界经济进一步安全有序融合,同时也会对国内收入分配格局产生重要影响。自由贸易试验区是推进高水平制度型开放的重要抓手,本文将自由贸易试验区建设视为准自然实验,基于2009～2021年中国A股上市公司数据,考察制度型开放对企业间工资差距的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,制度型开放显著降低了企业间工资差距;机制检验表明,通过构建自由贸易试验区对标国际准则,倒逼国内制度优化,其引致的市场竞争效应和缓解企业间融资约束不平等程度是带来企业间工资差距降低的渠道;扩展分析发现,构建自由贸易试验区在降低企业间工资差距的同时,并没有显著增加企业内工资差距,即企业内低工资群体不是企业间工资趋同的主要承担者,这暗示了制度型开放的共同富裕特征。本研究对理解以高水平对外开放促进国内共同富裕建设具有重要理论和现实意义。

关键词：制度型开放;营商环境优化;自由贸易试验区;企业间工资差距

Title：Does Institution-Based Liberalization Reduce the Inter-Firm Wage Gap? A Quasi-Experiment Based on Pilot Free Trade Zones

Abstract：Implementing an institutional open strategy through benchmarking international standards for domestic institutional innovation is not only conducive to achieving further secure and orderly integration between China and the global economy but also exerts a significant impact on the domestic income distribution pattern. Free Trade Zones (FTZs) serve as a crucial lever for achieving high-level openness. This paper views the construction of FTZs as a natural experiment. Based on the data of China A share listed companies from 2009 to 2021， it examines the impact of the opening up, based on rules and related institutions, on inter-enterprise wage disparities and its underlying mechanisms. The study reveals that opening up, based on rules and related institutions, significantly reduces wage disparities among enterprises. Mechanism tests indicate that， by constructing FTZs benchmarking international standards, domestic institutional optimization is achieved. The resulting market competition effect and alleviation of unequal financing constraints among enterprises are potential channels contributing to the reduction of inter-enterprise wage disparities. Extended analysis further discovers that the construction of FTZs not only reduces inter-enterprise wage disparities but also does not significantly increase intra-enterprise wage disparities. This implies that low-wage groups within enterprises are not the primary contributors to the convergence of wages among enterprises, highlighting the inclusive prosperity characteristics of institutional openness. The findings of this paper hold reference significance for advancing the construction of common prosperity through institution-based economic opening in China.

Key Words：Intra-firm Wage Dispersion Opening Based on Rules and Related Institutions Business Environment Optimization

摘要：本文以2011～2019年沪深A股中小板和创业板上市企业为样本,基于信号理论的拓展性运用,以“借贷规定”正式实施作为准自然实验,采用双重差分法实证评估了以“借贷规定”正式实施为标志的民间借贷利率规制放宽对中小企业融资约束的影响。研究表明,民间借贷利率规制放宽能够显著缓解中小企业的融资约束,而这种缓解主要是由激励中小企业提高治理水平和扩大中小企业金融可得性而实现的。进一步研究发现,民间借贷利率规制放宽对处于成长期、行业竞争激烈、位于金融发展水平较高地区和司法透明度较高地区的中小企业的融资约束缓解作用更加明显。本研究对缓解中小企业融资约束和推动民间借贷协同治理具有一定的参考价值。

关键词： 民间借贷;利率规制;融资约束;信号理论

Title：Relaxation of Interest Rate Regulation of Private Lending and Financing Constraints of SMEs Empirical Evidence Based on SME Board and GEM

Abstract：Based on extended application of the signal theory and the panel data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A -share SME board and GEM listed enterprises between 2011 and 2019，this paper takes the formal implementation of the “lending regulations” as a quasi-natural experiment, and empirically evaluates the impact of the relaxation of private lending interest rate regulation marked by the formal implementation of the “lending regulations" on the financing constraints of small and medium-sized enterprises by using differences in differences(DID).The empirical results show that the relaxation of private lending interest rate regulation can significantly alleviate the financing constraints of SMEs. The relaxation of private lending interest rate regulation can also encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to improve their governance level, thereby alleviating their financing constraints. Further research finds that the relaxation of interest rate regulation on private lending has a more obvious mitigation effect on the financing constraints of small and medium sized enterprises in the growth period, intense industry competition, areas with high levels of financial development or areas with high judicial transparency. This study has a certain reference value for alleviating financing constraints of SMEs and promoting the collaborative governance of private lending.

Key Words：Private Lending Regulation of Interest Rates Financing Constraints Signaling Theory

摘要：深入研究和理解冲突的发生机制和影响因素对“走和平发展道路”的中国特色现代化建设意义重大。本文围绕冲突经济学研究的重点话题,对冲突博弈的理论、冲突发生的前因与后果、冲突中的行为,以及冲突的预防和化解等核心问题的前沿研究进行系统的总结和评价。大量研究表明,冲突本质上为负和博弈,并且现实世界中经济、政治、种族、文化与宗教等多种因素均可能诱发和加剧冲突,造成严重后果。接触、交流、塑造共享的价值观是化解冲突的重要方向。理解群体间冲突与合作的发生机制和影响因素,以及探索冲突化解和合作促进机制仍是冲突经济学研究面临的核心问题。

关键词：冲突经济学;冲突行为;冲突化解

Title：The Strategies, Behaviors, and Resolution of Conflicts—A Review of Conflict Economics

Abstract：Understanding the causes and underline mechanisms of conflict is vital for China's path to modernization with peaceful development. This paper scientifically reviews the influencing literature in conflict economics，including game theory of conflict， causes and consequences of conflict, behaviors in conflicts, as well as prevention and resolution measures. A large body of research indicates that though conflict reflects a negative-sum game in nature，it can be triggered and exacerbated by various economic，political，racial，cultural，or religious factors, leading to tragic consequences. Contact， communication, and establishing shared values are important directions for resolving conflicts. Current studies in conflict economics need to further understand the mechanisms and influencing factors that lead to conflict and cooperation between groups, as well as to explore solutions to resolve conflict and promote cooperation.

Key Words：Conflict Economics Conflict Behavior Conflict Resolution